CFTC Event Contracts Proposal Puts Sports Bets Under Swap Rules

The CFTC wants sports, politics, culture and weather contracts treated as swaps, and on October 9, 2026, it also wrote down what it says is not one. The agency proposed a rule that would define "swap" to include CFTC event contracts. A separate interim final rule the same day carves out casino-style gambling.

Release 9310-26 describes the proposed rulemaking on event contracts.

What the CFTC event contracts proposal says

The notice would expressly widen the swap definition to cover CFTC event contracts, among them contracts on sports, politics, cultural events and weather. It calls these financial instruments commonly known to the trade as swaps. The stated goal is to resolve any ambiguity about them.

Chairman Michael Selig described them as commodity derivatives "squarely within the CFTC's regulatory remit" under the Commodity Exchange Act. He also said they fall inside the agency's exclusive jurisdiction. Written comments go through Regulations.gov and must arrive within 30 days of publication in the Federal Register.

The casino line in the interim rule

The second action takes effect as soon as it is published in the Federal Register. It codifies what the CFTC calls its longstanding position that casino-style gambling products are not swaps. The release names wagers placed on sportsbooks and casino games.

Selig summed it up this way: "Casino-style gambling products are not derivatives." He tied the move to the CFTC's past treatment of other products that states have historically regulated. Comments on that rule are also due within 30 days of publication.

How big the CFTC event contracts market looks on DefiLlama

DefiLlama tracks the volume of several prediction venues, which gives a sense of how large the CFTC event contracts market has grown. Kalshi printed $464 million on October 9, with $2.26 billion across the trailing seven days. Polymarket US came in at $103 million that day, up from $73 million on October 8, and Polymarket International at $66 million.

Over seven days Polymarket US handled about $710 million and Polymarket International about $520 million, per the same feed. Kalshi's best day in the last 90 was $609 million on September 28. Polymarket US peaked at $157 million on September 27. Smaller venues such as Opinion at $10.9 million and Predict.fun at $10.6 million trail far behind. Those figures are volume as reported by DefiLlama and not the CFTC's own count.

Perpetual futures relief from earlier in the week

On October 5, the Division of Market Oversight sent a no-action letter to designated contract markets. It lets them convert existing perpetual-style broad-based security index futures into true perpetual futures by removing expiration dates. Conditions apply, including feedback from holders of open positions, advance notice with a chance to exit, and risk disclosures.

The relief expires on October 20, 2026. Another CFTC step that week was a crypto rulemaking notice. TOCE's earlier piece on who could lend to retail traders covers the same week's crypto rulemaking notice. This article summarizes agency releases and market data and is not legal advice.