Bitcoin Price Analysis: A $79,800 Sweep Leaves BTC Inside The Range

Bitcoin dipped under $80,000 on October 15 and was back above $82,000 within hours. The 12:00 UTC four-hour candle touched $79,800.00 and closed at $82,418.00. This Bitcoin price analysis follows what happened next, using closed Binance candles through 16:00 UTC on October 16.

Bitcoin price analysis: the October 15 sweep

That 12:00 UTC candle opened at $80,980.01 and traded 6,459 BTC, about 3.1 times the median four-hour volume of 2,053 BTC. Its low went under the October 8 daily swing low at $80,393.56, and price closed well above it. A move like that is called a sweep, because it takes out stops below a level and then reverses.

It was not the first such move. On October 9 BTC dipped to $81,603.52, under the $82,563.00 level, and closed the day at $82,635.55. The October 15 daily candle traded 22,563 BTC, the most of any day since October 7.

The bounce ran out of room fast. Today's 12:00 UTC candle opened at $82,640.74 and closed at $81,353.14, down 1.6%. BTC was near $81,300 at 18:20 UTC.

BTC/USDT four-hour chart on TradingView, captured at 18:20 UTC on October 16. Chart by Daniel Kiprop.

Daily structure in the Bitcoin price chart

The daily trend turned down on October 8, when BTC closed at $81,754.45 under the $82,563.00 swing low from September 28. A daily close back above the October 12 swing high at $84,352.00 would be the first sign that the turn is failing.

Price now sits between two averages. The 20-day sits above it at $82,945.57 and the 50-day below it at $80,375.45. The 200-day is far lower at $75,731.85. On the weekly chart, the September 14 low of $74,967.97 has not been revisited.

Supply above, support below

Overhead supply is stacked in layers. The nearest cap is a bearish four-hour gap, which is an empty space left by a fast drop. It runs from $82,083.04 to $83,028.70 and dates to October 14.

Above that, two bearish order blocks overlap near $83,200 to $84,350. Sellers showed up there on October 12 to 14. A wider bearish gap on the daily chart then runs from $83,521.15 to $85,136.11, and it formed on October 8.

Below price, the first marker is the $79,800.00 low itself. A bullish daily gap from September 19 spans $77,179.47 to $80,844.58, and price is inside its upper edge today. A bullish order block from September 15 spans $74,967.97 to $78,250.46.

Four-hour BTC/USDT candles from Binance, with swing points, order blocks and fair value gaps. Chart by Daniel Kiprop.

Two scenarios from the range

The constructive case needs a four-hour close above $83,028.70, the top of the nearest gap. After that, $83,958.00 and $84,352.00 are the next hurdles. Each is a place where sellers showed up on October 12 to 14.

The cautious case starts with a four-hour close under $79,800.00. That would bring the bullish daily gap fully into play, with the order block under $78,250.46 below it. Both ideas lose weight if price closes on the other side of the range's midpoint, near $82,000.

TOCE tracked the funds side of this in Bitcoin ETF outflows reach $537M in October. Those flows do not explain individual candles. We have no lean, and this Bitcoin price analysis describes candles that already closed.