COMP Price Analysis: A $21 Low Turns Into A $29.30 Spike

COMP slid toward $21 for most of last week. On October 20 it reversed hard. The daily candle opened at $21.66 and fell to $21.00 first. Later it reached $29.30, and it settled at $25.92.

This COMP price analysis looks only at closed candles. Prices come from 07:00 UTC on October 21, when COMP traded near $26.

COMP/USDT on the 4h chart at TradingView, showing the October 20 spike and the candles after it. Source: TradingView, COMPUSDT on Binance.

The October 20 candle in this COMP price analysis

It started at 00:00 UTC, when the 4h candle printed the $21.00 low and bounced. The 08:00 UTC candle then traded about 62,600 COMP, when a normal one over the last 120 trades nearer 5,600.

Then came 16:00 UTC. That candle shot up to $29.30 and closed at $26.54 after trading about 285,000 COMP. The full day added up to roughly 491,000 COMP, compared with only 13,100 on October 19.

By the daily close at $25.92, COMP had cleared $25.34, the swing high from October 12. On a chart that counts as a structure break. The daily trend reads as up again, after turning down on October 15.

The weekly backdrop

Zoomed out, the move looks less wild. The weekly chart shows a higher low in July after a June low close to $15, and the weekly structure turned up in mid-September. Daily lows stepped higher from late August to late September, then held around $22.50 until the slide toward $20.62 in mid-October.

So this spike followed two months of recovery and one week of selling. It did not come out of a collapse. TradingView's performance panel, read at 07:34 UTC, showed COMP up about 13.8% over a week, 17% over a month and 49.6% over three months.

COMP levels worth watching

The 4h chart with swing points, order block and open gaps. Chart by Amina Wanjiru, candles from Binance.

Price sits above all three daily moving averages. The 20-day and 50-day exponential averages are near $23 and $22. The 200-day, just over $21, is the lowest of the three, which is the bullish order. Two untouched 4h gaps sit below price, the nearer one covering $24.75 to $25.50 and the deeper one $23.70 to $24.40.

Above price, the nearest marker is $27.03 from the September 30 daily swing high. The weekly chart adds an older high at $28 from January and another at $30.25 from April. The $29.30 wick landed between them.

Two COMP price paths from the 4h closes

Bulls need a 4h close over $27.03, which clears the September high. The $29.30 wick then comes back into play, and the April high is the next stop.

The other path begins if 4h candles slip back into the gap near $25, which would mean the spike is giving ground. A close below roughly $23.70 brings the 20-day average into view, and a daily close under $22.44 cancels the structure break.

For now neither side has an edge in this COMP price analysis. The move is a day old and a single candle carries most of its volume. These are chart levels taken from closed candles, not a call to trade.