PUMP Price Analysis: Two Failed Sweeps Led To An 11.7% Drop

PUMP lost almost 12% on October 12, and the four-hour chart shows how the day was set up. At 16:00 UTC on October 11 the token pushed above a $0.005762 swing high, reaching $0.005890, and slid back under it. It did the same thing again at 08:00 UTC on October 12, topping at $0.005873. Both times buyers reached for the highs and sellers were waiting there, and the second failure led into the fall.

This PUMP price analysis follows what happened next and where the levels sit now.

PUMP/USDT four-hour chart on TradingView, showing the two failed pushes and the drop that followed. Chart by Amina Wanjiru.

What the October 12 candle did

The daily candle opened at $0.005630, reached $0.006042 and closed at $0.004970 after a low of $0.004907. It traded about $33 million. The fall began with the 12:00 UTC four-hour candle. It closed under the $0.005444 swing low, which printed a bearish break of structure on that timeframe.

Three bearish fair value gaps now sit overhead. A gap is the empty space left between the candles on either side of a fast move. These run from $0.005340 to $0.005500, from $0.005243 to $0.005286 and from $0.005089 to $0.005106. On October 13 price touched $0.004766 and bounced to about $0.0051.

This was not the token's first sharp day this month. On October 8 the daily range ran from $0.006385 down to $0.005269. The close was $0.005538 on roughly $70 million of volume, more than twice what October 12 traded.

PUMP price analysis: the bigger picture

The daily trend is still up, because a bullish break of structure printed on September 27. The 50-day and 200-day averages sit well below price. The 20-day average, at about half a cent, is now above price, which shows the short-term push has cooled.

Four-hour PUMP/USDT chart from Binance data, with swing points, gaps and order blocks. Chart by Amina Wanjiru.

Below price, the first reference is the October 13 low. A little under it sits the September 22 swing high, and under that a bullish gap that reaches down toward the mid-September levels. Above price, the bearish gaps lead up to an order block that starts near $0.0057. Past it, the next marker is the October 4 swing high at $0.006806.

Bitcoin gives a supportive backdrop. It closed near $83,700, above a rising 100-day average, while PUMP fell on its own.

Two scenarios with triggers

For the upside, the first trigger is a four-hour close above $0.005500, the top of the largest gap. That would turn attention to the order block starting at $0.005709, and a close back under $0.004766 would cancel the idea.

For the downside, the trigger is a four-hour close under $0.004766. The next references are the $0.004709 level and the gap beneath it. A daily range of this size is normal for PUMP, so both sides can arrive quickly.

Daily PUMP/USDT chart from Binance data. Chart by Amina Wanjiru. Every level in this PUMP price analysis comes from closed Binance candles through 05:00 UTC on October 13. They describe structure only and are not trade advice.