SOL Price Analysis: Three Dips Under $101 Fail To Hold The Bounce

Solana got pushed under $101 three times on October 15, and each time buyers pulled it back. By 18:51 UTC on October 16, SOL was near $103.12 again, about 2.2% lower on the day. This SOL price analysis uses closed Binance candles through 16:00 UTC.

Three dips in the SOL price analysis

The first came in the 00:00 UTC four-hour candle, which touched $100.62 and closed at $102.47. The 04:00 candle reached $101.40, and the 12:00 candle fell to $100.91 before it closed at $106.08. All three went under the October 13 swing low at $101.69 and finished above it.

That 12:00 UTC candle traded 871,000 SOL, about 2.7 times the median four-hour volume of 327,000. It rose 3.8% from open to close. Buyers kept the price near $106 for the next 16 hours.

Four-hour SOL/USDT candles from Binance, with swing points, order blocks and fair value gaps. Chart by Mwenda.

The hold did not last. Today's 12:00 UTC candle opened at $106.62 and closed at $103.77, down 2.7%. That left SOL about 2.5% above the October 15 low once more.

Daily structure and averages

SOL's daily trend turned down on October 7, when it closed at $116.30 under the $116.32 swing low from September 29. The next day, October 8, was the heaviest of the last ten, with 3.5 million SOL traded and a low of $105.71. Lower highs followed, and $113.40 on October 12 is the latest.

Price now sits under the 20-day average at $111.39 and the 50-day at $107.25. It remains above the 200-day at $97.63. On the weekly chart, the trend is still up, and the last weekly swing low is $70.58 from the week of July 27.

Gaps and blocks around SOL price

Overhead, three bearish four-hour gaps stack up the chart. They span $109.26 to $110.66, $111.09 to $111.39 and $113.33 to $114.22. A bearish order block, the last up candle before a sharp drop, runs from $111.39 to $113.40.

Below, a bullish daily order block from September 15 spans $95.82 to $102.86. Price is trading inside its upper edge. A bullish daily gap from September 18 runs from $98.94 to $100.90, sitting just beneath the $100.62 low.

SOL/USDT four-hour chart on TradingView, captured at 18:51 UTC on October 16. Chart by Mwenda.

Two scenarios for SOL

The constructive case needs a four-hour close above $106.51, the high of the October 15 rebound. After that, $108.67 and the $109.26 to $110.66 gap are next. A daily close above the 50-day average near $107.25 would be the first repair of the daily structure.

The cautious case starts with a four-hour close under $100.62. That would put the bullish daily gap and the order block base near $95.82 in view. Both ideas lose weight if price closes back inside the $100.62 to $106.51 range.

TradingView shows SOL down about 6% over the past week at the time of capture. We have no lean. This SOL price analysis covers candles that already closed and is not advice to buy or sell.