ZRO Unlock Of 23.3M Tokens Fades As Price Slips Under $1.886

The ZRO unlock on Tuesday, October 20, made it a busy day for LayerZero's token. Tokenomist counts 23.3 million ZRO, about $44.5 million, as unlocked on October 20. That is 5.82% of circulating supply, and it landed on a day when ZRO traded as low as $1.76 and as high as $2.07. Two days later the price sits near $1.875 and under a level it has defended four times.

Tokenomist's summary for LayerZero. Source: Tokenomist, LayerZero.

That box also lists the next scheduled unlock as 23.3 million tokens on November 20, again worth about $44.5 million. It also reports cumulative buybacks of 77.3 million tokens, or 12.25% of released supply.

What the ZRO unlock did to the 4h candles

Volume arrived in the 12:00 UTC four-hour candle on unlock day. About 4.2 million ZRO changed hands, against a median near 1.2 million for the month. Price first sank to $1.760. A climb to $2.021 followed, and the candle closed at $1.941. That evening's final candle closed at $2.014 and set the daily close.

October 21 pushed higher, to $2.139 in the 16:00 UTC candle. It could not hold. That day closed at $1.951, and the first candle of October 22 ended at $1.910.

The $1.886 line

One number keeps showing up. A daily low of $1.886 was set on October 9. Since then ZRO has probed under it on October 14, 15, 19 and 20, reclaiming it each time. The ZRO unlock day probe was the deepest, down to $1.76.

Daily closes tell a slightly different story. October 17 and October 18 closed at $1.872 and $1.865, both under the line. That broke the daily structure to the downside. Price recovered above $1.886 by October 19, and now it is back beneath it.

ZRO against Tether on the four-hour chart, read at 07:08 UTC on October 22. Source: TradingView, ZROUSDT on Binance.

Three timeframes, three readings

Timeframes disagree. The daily trend reads down after the October 17 break. Weekly reads up, with a break above $1.344 on September 21. Four-hour structure also reads up, because a close over $1.985 on October 20 turned it higher and the $1.76 low has held.

Overhead sits a bearish four-hour gap from $1.987 to $2.017. Price is about 24% under the October 12 high of $2.483. Bitcoin sits above its 100-day average, while ZRO trades inside its 20-day range. Binance's account ratio showed 57% of accounts short at 07:00 UTC.

Two ZRO paths from the 4h closes

Upside needs a four-hour close above $2.017, the top of the bearish gap. That opens $2.139 and then $2.282. A four-hour close under $1.863, today's low, cancels it.

Downside starts with a four-hour close below $1.863. Next come the unlock-day low at $1.760 and the October 18 low at $1.726. A four-hour close back above $1.987 cancels that path.

We have no lean here. The next ZRO unlock is a month away, and the chart is split across its timeframes. Levels come from closed Binance candles and serve as reference points only.