HYPE Price Analysis: Lower Highs Press On A $76.15 Low

Hyperliquid's token has spent two weeks making lower highs. This HYPE price analysis starts from the $95.25 peak on October 5 and follows each bounce since. At 08:18 UTC on October 20 HYPE traded near $78.63, with the week's low at $76.15.

How the HYPE decline built up

The slide came in steps. HYPE broke its daily structure on October 8 with a close under $84.64. It lost another leg on October 12, when it ran to $88.12 and then finished the day near $81. TradingView shows the token down about 14.5% over a month and about 3% over a week.

Each rebound since has stopped lower than the last. The four-hour highs run from $88.12 to roughly $82.80, then $82.64 and $80.43 on October 19. Lows follow the same staircase, with $78.48 on October 16, $77.16 on October 17 and $76.15 on October 18.

HYPE/USDT on the four-hour chart at 08:18 UTC on October 20. Source: TradingView.

What the HYPE price analysis shows on the four-hour chart

Sellers took out the $78.48 low several times on October 17 and 18, and each probe was bought back above it. The last one, at 20:00 UTC on October 18, ran down to $76.15 and closed back inside the range. A sweep like that can mark a pause. It does not turn the structure, because the highs are still falling.

Above price sits a bearish fair value gap from about $79.85 to $80.84, left by the October 16 drop. Higher up, a bearish order block spans $87.06 to $88.12, from the October 12 spike. Below, a small bullish gap covers $77.60 to $78.66, created on the October 19 open. HYPE trades inside that gap now.

Four-hour candles from Binance with swing points, gaps and order blocks marked. Chart by Brian Otieno.

The daily picture is plain. HYPE has not closed a day above $82 since October 12, and the best close of the past week was $80.35 on October 16. The daily averages lean against the token as well. The 20-day sits near $84 and the 50-day near $87.60, both above price. The close of $79.28 on October 19 was the second highest of the last four days, which says more about a pause than a turn.

Where the HYPE price analysis points next

Price action over the next sessions decides which of two readings holds. Monday's range was narrow, from $77.64 to $80.43. The week before ran from $76.15 up to $88.12.

Two scenarios for HYPE

The upside case needs a four-hour close above $80.84, the top of the bearish gap. That would put the October 14 high near $82.80 in view, and the HYPE price analysis would only change character with a close above $88.12.

The downside case starts with a four-hour close under $77.60, which empties the small bullish gap. A close under $76.15, the October 18 low, would give a new low for the move.

Neither case is a forecast. We have no lean on HYPE, and the levels come from Binance candles that had already closed. Both cases wait on closed candles, so the one still open at 08:18 UTC does not count.