ETH Price Analysis: A Wick To $2,318 Tests The Daily Order Block

Ether slipped under a level it only broke in August, and the wick went further than the close. On the 00:00 UTC candle on October 15, ETH touched $2,318.00 and closed at $2,359.63. This ETH price analysis follows the slide from $2,530 and shows where the next support sits.

ETH price analysis: the slide in candles

The decline came in two steps. The 12:00 UTC candle on October 14 fell 3.0%, from $2,504.75 to $2,429.83, on 132,700 ETH. That was about 3.9 times the median four-hour volume of 34,100 ETH.

The second step was the 00:00 UTC candle on October 15, which lost another 2.6% on 116,300 ETH. Its low of $2,318.00 went under September's low near $2,356, yet the candle closed back above it. The 08:00 UTC candle finished at $2,363.31.

Four-hour ETH/USDT candles from Binance, with swing points, order blocks and fair value gaps drawn from the data. Chart by Mwenda.

Structure and averages behind the ETH price analysis

On the daily chart, ETH broke structure to the downside on October 7 by taking out $2,650.88. A daily swing low at $2,406.11 followed on October 8. Four-hour candles have now closed under it, though the daily close of October 14 at $2,421.60 held above it.

Price sits under the 20-day average at $2,562.80 and the 50-day at $2,498.11. Only the 200-day, at $2,308.71, is below. The weekly chart is more awkward. ETH broke above the April weekly swing high of $2,464.91 in August, and it now trades back under that level.

Blocks, gaps and where support sits

A daily bullish order block from September 15 spans $2,358.88 to $2,520.00. Price is hugging its base. A block is the last opposite candle before a strong move, so a base like this often draws attention.

Above price, supply is stacked on the four-hour chart. A bearish fair value gap spans $2,388.61 to $2,403.69. That is an empty space left behind by a fast move. A bearish order block runs from $2,421.35 to $2,453.40, with a second gap from $2,453.40 to $2,479.31.

What the ETF table shows

Farside Investors shows Ether ETFs with net outflows of $825.1 million in the first 10 sessions of October. TOCE broke down the funds in Bitcoin ETF outflows reach $537M in October. Those flows are context and do not explain the candles.

Two scenarios from here

The constructive case needs a four-hour close above $2,403.69, the top of the lower gap. A close above $2,453.40 would clear the order block and put the $2,479.31 gap in play. Reclaiming $2,406.11 on a daily close would repair the broken swing low.

ETH/USDT four-hour chart on TradingView, captured at 13:37 UTC on October 15. Chart by Mwenda.

The cautious case starts with a four-hour close under $2,318.00, today's low. That puts the 200-day average near $2,309 next, and below it the top of an August gap at $2,221.54. Both ideas lose weight if price returns to the other side of $2,406.11.

BTC trades above its 100-day average, while ETH sits below its 10-day low. We have no lean. Levels use closed Binance candles through 12:00 UTC on October 15. This ETH price analysis describes history and is not advice to buy or sell.